At the end of Day 2, my times were slow enough to land me in 25 of 27 and only besting two people who didn't even run Day 2 (left due to weather I presume). So technically, I didn't place DFL, but I failed the second goal of not being DFL of the people who competed both days. Small victories are important for Project Tilty!
Yea, that's pretty far down the ranking list, and should be a wake-up call. But not a "throw in the towel moment". There were a lot of factors at the Spring Nats that were against you...
First, you really haven't barely begun to prep the car yet, and haven't done the most important thing in Solo:
go to the maximum wheel and tire size. Or even the modern compounds. I would bet money that the top STX guys weren't on 2012-era ST tires, and many of them had full tread "Rains" for this 20 year flood conditions that were present in Nebraska.
Realistically, your car is running on lowering springs and Konis with some last-generation 245mm Dunlops.
At best your car is prepped to about what I'd call maybe... 60% of the max, and there's still quite a bit left to do. Yes, these things cost money. And take real testing to get dialed in, when you have more things to adjust than you do now (damper settings, swaybar settings, ride heights, camber and caster settings, etc). And I don't know anything about your driving skills or placement in previous classes/cars at National level events, but driving can always be improved - ask any top driver and they will agree
they could always improve, too. Don't take that the wrong way - you've done a good bit, but it isn't nearly what the top guys in STX have done to their cars.
And if you've never trophied at Nationals before, go bribe a proven winner to co-drive with you at as many events as possible. Riding through with someone could lop seconds off of
your run times, and/or they may see or "feel" something huge to improve on the set-up. If you lived anywhere near Texas I'd volunteer to co-drive with ya at least once, to see how far off of our STX car it was.
And the CRAP weather (it downpoured two out of four days!) from the Spring Rainfest Nationals makes comparing results in class almost impossible. This generated
nearly worthless data.
Mustangs in STX, Mustangs in STU, and Mustangs in ST in general
Lets just be clear on this point, my experience at Spring Nationals is not indicative of an ST prepped Mustang, nor is it driven by anyone worth their salt so my results are not to be taken too seriously.
OK, we're with you there...
At this point, I am doubting quite heavily that any allowance the SEB/STAC would allow for live axle cars, heavy cars, whatever, would make a Mustang competitive in ST. Lets do some bench racing shall we?
Whoa, wait... bench racing. The dangerous thinking begins here.
Assuming tire compound doesn't change (in this case it would be Star Specs), the time difference between 245's (what I'm on) and 265's (class limit) is about .75 seconds. At the end of day 2 I was 10.42 seconds behind the top guy and 7.51 seconds behind the last torphy spot. At 1.5 seconds total reduction, I'ms till 8.92 seconds behind the top guy and 6.01 seconds behind the last trophy spot. Even if the SEB/STAC where to open that up to 285's that time would only drop about another 1.5 seconds to 7.42 seconds off first and 4.51 seconds off. Even out to 315's, another 1.6 seconds off THOSE times to 5.82 seconds off the lead and 2.91 seconds off of the trophies. That is of course assuming a 60 second course of which these two courses kinda "washed out" to be in cumulative time.
You then go on to calculate how much time you'd gain with the right tire size, chassis weight loss, etc. After looking at results from a throw-away rain event.
Hold on now! Where on earth do you get these factors and formulas? Me thinks from someone's rectum.
Sure, there is likely some sort of
gross factor you can put on the +20mm of tire you still haven't utilized (and the "why" still baffles me), but there is a lot more left to do to your car than than that. And while we struggled mightily in STX with our 430 whp Mustang, when we jumped to STU in late 2011 and added 1" of wheel width and
only +10mm of tire width, the car WOKE UP. It went from a big hot mess always boiling the rear tires in an autocross run to a STU class winner and top PAX contender. There isn't some magical formula that is incremental in nature, sometimes a small increase has atypical results.
Anyone that tells you otherwise is blowing smoke. Sure, people spend a lot of time on the interwebs and tend to get a little "calculation crazy", but nothing replaces real timed testing at showing you what works.
That only focuses on the tires, how about on driver modifications and driver confidence from bigger wheels and tires? I honestly don't know how you could apply a time to it, but even at a very generous 1.5 seconds we aren't even within driver noise yet. It would REALLY have to boost the capabilities of these cars to kill over 5 seconds to be even in the same ballpark as the top contendors are. Then we have weight reduction possibilities too. There is about 165lbs (being generous) of weight to remove that are allowed in ST for this car. That translates to about 2% reduction in time on a 60 second course or 1.2 seconds.
And what about the SUSPENSION, that has barely been modified from stock!?! This area still has
immense potential on your car.
These above calculations are very very hard to substantiate and are, at best, a blind stab in the dark. Now even though I agree with you that the S197 has a lot more to potential in STU (with a potential upgrade to hopefully a 315mm tire) than in STX (on a 265mm tire) I don't agree
at all with your calculations. The hard truth is: your 10+ second time detriment wasn't just tires. To make even an educated guess on what "time amount" is left, you would need to prep the car to the limit of STX (headers, exhaust, cold air, weight loss, seats, max width tires and wheels, the latest tire compound, real shocks and spring rates, lots of camber, real testing) and then take a proven driver and throw them into a "big" event... that was dry. None of those things have been done here, sorry. Don't jump to conclusions on poor data.
MOOT! hehehe...
It would seem that with a good driver, unlimited wheel width and 315 street tires that the 05+ Mustangs might have a potential course dependancy. I would LOVE to see the complaint letters if the SEB/STAC ever approved such a measure for Pony Cars and I'm sure it would generate a ton of animosity there too as another one of THOSE "Pony Car" allowances.
To me, such a move sounds like something STU could support. Rather than making this a pony car specific allowance, why not open up all 2WD tires to unlimited width in STU, move the Mustang and any lingering pony cars from STX to STU and let us duke it out with the boost buggies (admitedly on 245's). IIRC, and please, DO correct me if I'm wrong, the M3's are pretty limited in ST trim on wheel widths and the Littlehale M3 to somewhere around 275's and maybe 285's if you let the rubbing move the fenders or whatever you want to call it. I get it, I get it, I get it, STU is FASTER than STX but it doesn't make sense to open up the wheels/tire allowances in STX when STU is pretty much there and the nearest competitor to the STI and Evo can't even run the currently allowed class maximum size.
One of these things is not like the other... S197 at left, E36 on 315s at right.
Well, you are forgetting one massive factor: the Pony Cars generally all have SOLID AXLE rear suspensions.
Horse and buggy stuff when compared to the 5-link and IRS bits on most 2WD cars in STU, like the BMW E46/E36/E82/E90 chassis cars.
There simply is no comparison. If you gave
all 2WD cars 315mm tire limits in STU, I'd tell people to go build an E46 M3 for the STU,
RIGHT NOW. And those E46 M3 cars can fit that much tire with the grey rules in ST regarding "fender contours". How else do you think people managed 10" wheels and even 285mm tires on skinny little E36 M3s, that came with OEM front 225mm tires!
Left: STU prepped E36 M3 on 18x10" wheels and 285/30/18 tires.
Right: My own STU prepped E36 M3 on 18x10" wheels
For that reason (solid axle), yes, the "pony cars" do NEED something extra. The 315mm allowance is part of the answer, and I doubt that this alone will be enough to close the gap to the AWD boost buggies. But it will make these V8 pony cars immensely more driveable, and pleasurable to autocross, instead of feeling like you are skating around on ice.
Project Tilty may be coming to a close. It takes some pretty hardcore stupidity and dedication to continue to fight a battle that can't be won. I'm not even sure the car could trophy at this point. That seems like a convenient cop out for someone to use when they get their ass handed to them but looking at the time split, even with alien like driving abilities and maxed preparation, I don't think any allowance will get the car there.
Again - you've barely scratched the surface on Street Touring prep!
Don't throw out the baby with the bath water. One epically bad results doesn't give you enough data to make such a drastic change. You'd need to do as much and MORE to win in ESP than you would in STX. Trust me on that one...
...the general consensus was still the "no duh, go play in ESP". They made some compelling points about buying used A6's and running on those instead of continuing the fight in ST. The switch would only require wide A6's and wide/light wheels. My concern will always be on cost both in the short term and long term and this was the primary appeal of ST.
To switch to ESP will raise your per-run-costs dramatically over an ST class. Again - been there, done that. You might want to ask people who have run both categories (ST and SP) in the same car that don't have an ax to grind against one category. And I include myself here: you know I've had a beef with the S197 in STX classing for a while, too.
Even buying "used" A6s (which are falling off a cliff after about a dozen runs) you aren't going to "save money" by upping to ESP. I'd recommend new Kumho V710s if you want to run SP on a budget. But also remember that the
allowed mods are even MORE extreme in ESP than in STX/STU... and those folks at the pointy end of the grid aren't running on Konis and lowering springs in ESP. They have A/C-less, purpose built race cars without emissions, "hybrid" drivetrain swaps that never existed from the factory, high end shocks, goofy aero mods, the HUGE FREAGIN TIRES.
You should search out and ask Tim Bergstrom (owner of the car above) about the switch from STX to ESP in his 2006 Mustang GT. Very similar to your car, except he went much further in STX than you have so far. His car placed 2nd at Nationals in ESP last year but it is a LOT further along now than he ever was in STX. No A/C, massive car diet, 1000# springs, real aero mods, and the like. Ask him if running ESP is "cheaper"...
It would mean giving up on going to Nationals if I did. No guarantees that I'm going now either though.
Well, sometimes these events are a wake-up call and you shouldn't go to Nationals, if your goal is to win or trophy. I figured that out in early 2011 - we were hopelessly outclassed in STX even Regionally, plus they were still allowing the STS Hondas to "Class Swap", so we bailed on Nationals. It was the right call for us at the time, but it still sucked. You being 25th out of 27 pretty much tells you that your chances in ST or SP at Nats this year ain't good, unless you win the Powerball or make some "life changes" that allow a lot more seat time, mods, and testing. Sometimes not going is the right call...
Anyway, a move to ESP will most likely happen sooner than anticipated and as soon as next year. In doing so I will have to forgo any other planned mods than wheels/tires for next year (assuming no changes to finances) since I will most likely have to buy new street tires to drive on since I doubt the Star Specs will survive this season. That decision wont be made quite yet though. I'm still interested in hearing what, if anything, the SEB/STAC does.
I hate to see you throw out all hopes and aspirations for ST from this showing. Again, look at what you've done to the car (and not) and then ask yourself - will jumping to ESP somehow obviate the need to do these things
AND MORE to be competitive? I saw what it was going to take to win ESP - a purpose built race-only car, that we would have to be willing to cut up/flare, yank the A/C and emissions from, and exploit every update/backdate loophole.
ESP is fun, and giant R compound gumballs make the car easier to drive, I won't lie, but it is by NO means a "cheaper" way to autocross than Street Touring. ST is -the- most affordable class to build for, bar none. I would have said "Street" class, but they just butchered that proposal and it is now just "Stock with Street Tires", and the costs-per-run will still suffer greatly on many cars without special-model camber allowances.
But don't take my word for it (someone who has built an S197 for both STX and ESP). Ask Tim Bergstrom. Ask anyone else that has built for ST and SP in the same car, and took the prep/testing/mods very seriously. Sure, asking people who haven't run ST seriously and they will give you semi-informed opinions, but like many hard lessons on the interwebs, "all opinions are not equal", because all expereince levels are not equal. I think the consensus among those that have done both seriously will be that
ST is a far more affordable route to take than SP, if you want to place well at Nationals events. ESP is easier to set-up for than STX, but the main problem here is... the car is classed wrong in STX. That is the area we all need to pressure the SEB/STAC on. If/when this car moves to STU (and gets a bump in tire maximum) things will be a lot less painful for these cars.
